Is it safe!?
"Is it Safe!?"
“Is it safe?” is a question that pops up from time to time when me and Erin travel or move to a new country to live temporarily. In fact, it's a question relatives and friends have always asked when I travelled by myself to certain countries before meeting Erin, and I found it can be a frustrating question, but it is also one that is often completely innocent and sometimes perfectly valid.
"What shapes people's perceptions of countries?"
In short, a lot of factors.
Media... is definitely a big influence, and unfortunately it is an overwhelmingly negative influence. In fact if you switched on the news channels now, you'd be hard pressed to find anywhere that seems 'peaceful'. The world always seems to be falling apart.
But you have to consider the fact that the media only report on sensationalist stories and stories that will stir up fear in people, since that virtually all of the world's media is now owned by just a handful of rich and powerful people: It's much easier to control populations that are fearful of each other and the outside world, and fear also has the habit of destroying people's ability to question things that they are told...
Travel Advisories...So, in reality, quite often even the countries that are deemed “unsafe”by travel advisories are actually perfectly safe for visitors. In fact, I have learned to loathe government advisories over the years for not painting an accurate picture of what is really going on in places, often claiming an entire country is dangerous, much to the detriment of local business owners who rely on travellers for their income and so lose their livelihood.
But what is even worse is that often the UK and other 'western' government will say a place is at high risk of terrorism when actually they have had more numerous and more bloody terrorists attacks themselves!
In fact, both the frequency of terrorist attacks and the total number killed or injured in such attacks in the UK during 2017 is higher (At least 720 killed or seriously wounded) than in Egypt, even when you consider the fairly recent attack on Northern Sinai province that killed or wounded over 300 people at a mosque.
Yet the UK government is claiming that there is a “high risk of terrorism” throughout most of Egypt and have banned all direct flights to Sharm El Sheik. This is undoubtedly politically or economically motivated.
But the really frustrating thing is that you do not see countries warning against “all but essential travel” to the UK, which goes to show how many countries in Europe and North America deliberately misinform and scare citizens due to purely political motives...
History...is another big influence. Those countries with a history of violence, atrocities such as famines or genocides, or civil wars seem to also contribute to the “is it safe!?” questions.
In fact, I am surprised how much this warps people's perceptions of a country, even when it's violent historical events happened literately 20, 30 or even 50 years ago. It seems people cling to preconceptions about many countries because of their distant pasts.
The Balkans are a perfect example of this: When people hear the words Albania, Bosnia, Sarajevo or Kosovo they seem transfixed on what they heard in the 1990's when the bloody Balkan Wars took place. It doesn't matter that these events are well and truly in the past and happened 20 years ago, to many people the images of genocide and a nasty civil war are all they will never know. It's very sad but that's the way it is.
But really it's their loss, because the Balkans are really the last pocket in Europe that has some of the best beaches and friendliest cultures on the entire continent.. !
Sure, some places really are very dangerous, but equally (or if not, more so) many places that conjure up fear are actually in reality completely safe from a travelling (or in our case at the moment, an expat) perspective.
So now you know what drives people's misconceptions about countries and their safety, but now for the 50 million dollar question...
"So what constitutes 'safe' anyway?"
From a travelling or expat perspective, the first thing I always look into when heading to a new country or region is the rates of violent crime like homicides and armed robberies, along with racially motivated attacks or banditry.
It's especially significant if these are regularly against tourists and expats.
For example, the US (and to a slightly lesser extent, Canada) is actually one place that has a terrible reputation amongst backpackers due to it's extremely high homicide rates, racial violence and relatively draconian laws.
Latin America does have some of the highest violent crime rates in the world, but racial violence is not as big an issue compared to North America, and combined with it's relatively low costs is much more popular than the US and Canada amongst backpackers and expats.
European cities are – with a few exceptions - overwhelmingly safe compared to those in North America, and so it should come as no surprise that so many backpackers still love the the traditional European backpacking circuits from Barcelona to Prague to Budapest and so on.
I also check to see if a
country has upcoming elections that could cause civil unrest or
something that could escalate into a full-blown civil war.
But having an armed insurgency, violent protests or even a full-blown civil war does not necessarily mean that the country will be unsafe and risky for me to go to. It sounds counter-intuitive to say that, but it is true, and I have had numerous experiences of being in countries that are experiencing political turmoil and civil unrest.
The truth is, most the time armed insurgencies are only present in regions of the country, almost always being regions that have absolutely nothing to offer me as a visitor. Even violent demonstrations are usually contained in certain districts of a city. I have actually rarely noticed anything remotely wrong during my visits to countries that are in apparent turmoil.
A few examples off the top of my head:
There were military coups and demonstrators killed in Thailand which resulted in me having a beach to myself in Koh Lanta right before the rainy season. I passed through Bangkok on the way where most the violence was happening, but it was just like any other day in the tourist districts (and even outside of them).
There was Mynamar (Burma) in 2007 which had a hardcore military junta in control of the nation and were fighting full blown insurgencies in the countryside. I felt remarkably safe the whole month I was there and Burmese people I discovered are some of the most friendly people I have ever encountered, being dragged off the street and invited for tea just for a chat.
Then there was the week spent in Kiev, in a country that is essentially in the midst of civil war being fought in the Donestk region to the East. About the only thing I noticed was the amount of army recruitment posters on the metro system and the lack of other tourists, which I admit was really refreshing!
And even right now in Egypt there is a jihadist insurgency in northern Sinai province which only 3 weeks ago bombed a mosque killing hundreds, the worst terrorist attack in Egyptian history.
What is the one thing that is common between them? Yep, I didn't once feel unsafe in any of them. In fact I felt infinitely more safe than I do in the UK or any other 'Western/Developed' country...
But what about dictatorships? Aren't they the most dangerous countries of all?
No, not by a long-shot!
Actually, the most stable and safe countries are actually dictatorships. Think about it: The number one dangers to tourists and expats is violent crime and/or racial attacks, and the second is political instability.
Well, dictatorships have no demonstrations that can turn violent, because usually they are violently suppressed or are thwarted by secret police before they can even get started. And no one is going to dare rob you in North Korea, and as such, the country is one of the safest in the world for visitors unless you do or say something incredibly stupid that criticises the regime.
I'd feel infinitely safer walking the streets of Pyongyang or Tehran in Iran than I would do walking the streets of any North American or Western European city, and that's for a very good reason.
Violent crime and racial violence is the number 1 thing to look out for, and so you compare the statistics of somewhere like Vientiane in Laos – or Pyongyang in North Korea – with virtually any large North America, Latin American or Western European city and the countries with dictatorships will come out on top every time.
Actually, the most political unstable countries are almost always countries with a democratic system of government, and almost always it is countries with democracies that have some of the highest homicide rates in the world.
The only real exceptions to this are countries with dictatorships that are on the verge of being overthrown, and likewise weak democracies or countries that are still transitioning into a democratic system.
In fact, it's countries like this that are big red flag for me, but even this is not necessarily a sign that the place is out of limits. So I will look into the situation more and ask other travellers or expats what the situation is.
Of course, there are examples of where this isn't he case: You would have to be pretty stupid to go wandering around Syria at the moment, or just wandering around the DR Congo (though even there there are safe zones opening up for the more adventurous traveller!) oblivious to the situation there.
But it's worth noting that even a fairly large swathe of Iraq – the Autonomous Kurdistan Region – in the northern most part of Iraq is actually incredibly safe from all perspectives, from the likelihood of terrorist attacks, to homicide rates and political instability. It passes the test on all of them and outranks even the safest towns and cities in Europe and North America!
Even in countries with homicide problems and political instability that can cause problems, such as countries like El Salvador, Mexico, the US or Colombia, you will ALWAYS find many “safe zones” and these “safe zones” are thankfully almost always in areas that visitors will want to explore.
After all, no one is going to be interested in visiting the risky border area separating Mexico and the US, yet Baja California, Guadalajara, and the Aztec ruins at Teotihuacan and other areas were absolutely fine to visit at time of writing this article.
Still not convinced? Then let me tell you a story about the first ever trip that I took by myself for 6 months, roughly 12 years ago...It should really convince you otherwise!
Srinagar, India
One of the first places I visited when I was travelling for the first time was to the Kashmir province in India. It is still to this day a disputed territory between India and Pakistan, and back then a few months before heading to India I remember hearing about artillery shelling on the road to it's capital, Srinagar, as well as a suicide bombing. Family and friends were naturally worried, but from the information I had gathered from backpackers and locals who had been, it painted a completely different picture.
So off I went and I had a great time, staying next door to the same houseboat on Srinagar's 'Dal Lake' the Beatles had stayed at in the late 60's and early 70's when they visited India. The local people were amazingly hospitable and every morning would serve saffron tea, fried eggs and toast.
In fact, the only thing I saw that was slightly sketchy was a burnt-out building riddled with bullet holes on the outskirts of the city when being driven to the bus station. It was nowhere near the parts of Srinigar that the few tourists went to at the time, and as it turned out was about 9 months old anyway.
Communist Insurgents in Nepal...
Fast forward 2 months after this, and I decided to change my plans and head off from India to enter neighbouring Nepal, based on the rave reviews I had heard from travellers who had just been...
Nepal at the time was still in the midst of a civil war with a Communist insurgency in the rural areas. But again, from what I heard from travellers who had been it seemed like it was safe for travellers.
The only thing I noticed on the way towards the backpacker-mecca of Pokhara (Nepal's second-city after Kathmandu) was a few military checkpoints and occasional soldiers who hopped on for 10 minutes as an escort.
When I got to Pokhara I organised a trek into the Himalayas to visit a Gurkha village, and on day 2 me and my guide bumped into the Communist rebels. My guide and numerous other trekkers I had met in Pokhara had said that they ask for a 'donation' for entering their territory and usually 500 rupees (which at the time was about 4 quid) would suffice.
We bumped into them in a beautiful village at the base of the final mountain we were to ascend. It had a small waterfall and a little temple and the houses were traditional Nepalese ones made from wood. I was having issues with leeches and so I sat by the little waterfall and took off my hiking boots and thick wool socks. To my horror there were 3 on one foot and 4 on the other, all fat and swollen! Leeches don't hurt because they inject a chemical into your skin that numbs nerve cells like a local anaesthetic, but it is alarming to see this swollen creatures sucking the blood out of your feet!
I panicked and did the worst thing you could do with leeches, grabbing at them and pulling them off. I did this with one or two and my guide and what I assumed was the colonel of the squad of rebels shouted at me in Nepalese. I stopped and the Colonel came over with his cigar – looking just like Che Guevara - and said what I assumed to be something like “You idiot! This is how you get leeches off! Hold still!”.
So my feet were bleeding now from the leeches I had ripped off, but he knelt down and poked the remaining ones with his cigar. They all shrivelled up one by one and fell off, and these punctures in my feet didn't bleed. So I learnt a life lesson there from a Communist insurgent!
So after this me, my guide and the insurgents all sat around – with Kalashnikovs scattered around on the ground - with my guide was translating for me. We chatted about politics and the situation in Nepal at the time where they were trying to overthrow an Absolute Monarchy that had gradually become more and more disliked and sometimes despised by the general public.
I was reading a lot of Noam Chomsky and Murray Bookchin at the time so we had an interesting conversation about Socialism and they seemed to enjoy it. But I think they enjoyed the Cadbury's chocolate bar I shared around with them a lot more!
So by the time we parted ways – after they let me play around with one of their AK-47's (they took the magazine out!) - that 500 rupees 'donation' was only 300 rupees. But I said I liked their cause, so paid the 500 rupees anyway...After all, what is 2 quid difference?
Amusingly, they actually gave me a receipt! Karl Marx, Mao, Lennin busts in the background, with a hammer and sickle, and the amount paid and the signature of the “Che Guevera” colonel, so if I met other rebels, I could just show them this and I wouldn't have to pay again! I still have the receipt somewhere to this day.
The Gurkha village was great and they loved the fact a couple of their sons were based in Larkhill, only a few miles away from Salisbury my home town! A lot of rice whisky and spicy buffalo was consumed apparently because of this....
But on the way back down a couple of days later, we bumped into a squad of government pro-monarchists troops. They were all friendly and said “Namaste” as they passed, and my guide said that it is pretty common for these territory shifts to happen so quickly! In fact he exchanged a few words with them that made them all laugh, which he later explained was him simply saying “Sorry, you missed them by 2 days!”.
Ask expats, locals and fellow travellers...Most the world is actually remarkably safe!
How do I go about finding out if a country is safe or not?
If I am already on the road, then I will simply ask travellers who have already been what the security situation is. If able, I will supplement this with asking on forums too (like couchsurfing). It may be somewhat surprising but actually this first hand experience from travellers is the most accurate and up to date information on security situations.
But this is how it works in a nutshell: No one with any real travel experience takes any travel advisories from governments seriously, and this is not because they don't care, but that they know that such information is highly inaccurate at best, and very damaging at worst.
It will undoubtedly come as a surprise to people who haven't been travelling outside resorts and package holidays that actually, there are not that many places in the world that are completely out-of-bounds.
So, there we have it. It can be difficult and at times frustrating to try to make people realise that the world outside our 'western bubbles' is generally a safe and amazing place, and if travelling has taught me anything that the people in it are generally kind, honest and compassionate when given the opportunity.
If this wasn't true, then why would we travel??
But having an armed insurgency, violent protests or even a full-blown civil war does not necessarily mean that the country will be unsafe and risky for me to go to. It sounds counter-intuitive to say that, but it is true, and I have had numerous experiences of being in countries that are experiencing political turmoil and civil unrest.
The truth is, most the time armed insurgencies are only present in regions of the country, almost always being regions that have absolutely nothing to offer me as a visitor. Even violent demonstrations are usually contained in certain districts of a city. I have actually rarely noticed anything remotely wrong during my visits to countries that are in apparent turmoil.
A few examples off the top of my head:
There were military coups and demonstrators killed in Thailand which resulted in me having a beach to myself in Koh Lanta right before the rainy season. I passed through Bangkok on the way where most the violence was happening, but it was just like any other day in the tourist districts (and even outside of them).
There was Mynamar (Burma) in 2007 which had a hardcore military junta in control of the nation and were fighting full blown insurgencies in the countryside. I felt remarkably safe the whole month I was there and Burmese people I discovered are some of the most friendly people I have ever encountered, being dragged off the street and invited for tea just for a chat.
Then there was the week spent in Kiev, in a country that is essentially in the midst of civil war being fought in the Donestk region to the East. About the only thing I noticed was the amount of army recruitment posters on the metro system and the lack of other tourists, which I admit was really refreshing!
And even right now in Egypt there is a jihadist insurgency in northern Sinai province which only 3 weeks ago bombed a mosque killing hundreds, the worst terrorist attack in Egyptian history.
What is the one thing that is common between them? Yep, I didn't once feel unsafe in any of them. In fact I felt infinitely more safe than I do in the UK or any other 'Western/Developed' country...
But what about dictatorships? Aren't they the most dangerous countries of all?
No, not by a long-shot!
Actually, the most stable and safe countries are actually dictatorships. Think about it: The number one dangers to tourists and expats is violent crime and/or racial attacks, and the second is political instability.
Well, dictatorships have no demonstrations that can turn violent, because usually they are violently suppressed or are thwarted by secret police before they can even get started. And no one is going to dare rob you in North Korea, and as such, the country is one of the safest in the world for visitors unless you do or say something incredibly stupid that criticises the regime.
I'd feel infinitely safer walking the streets of Pyongyang or Tehran in Iran than I would do walking the streets of any North American or Western European city, and that's for a very good reason.
Violent crime and racial violence is the number 1 thing to look out for, and so you compare the statistics of somewhere like Vientiane in Laos – or Pyongyang in North Korea – with virtually any large North America, Latin American or Western European city and the countries with dictatorships will come out on top every time.
Actually, the most political unstable countries are almost always countries with a democratic system of government, and almost always it is countries with democracies that have some of the highest homicide rates in the world.
The only real exceptions to this are countries with dictatorships that are on the verge of being overthrown, and likewise weak democracies or countries that are still transitioning into a democratic system.
In fact, it's countries like this that are big red flag for me, but even this is not necessarily a sign that the place is out of limits. So I will look into the situation more and ask other travellers or expats what the situation is.
Of course, there are examples of where this isn't he case: You would have to be pretty stupid to go wandering around Syria at the moment, or just wandering around the DR Congo (though even there there are safe zones opening up for the more adventurous traveller!) oblivious to the situation there.
But it's worth noting that even a fairly large swathe of Iraq – the Autonomous Kurdistan Region – in the northern most part of Iraq is actually incredibly safe from all perspectives, from the likelihood of terrorist attacks, to homicide rates and political instability. It passes the test on all of them and outranks even the safest towns and cities in Europe and North America!
Even in countries with homicide problems and political instability that can cause problems, such as countries like El Salvador, Mexico, the US or Colombia, you will ALWAYS find many “safe zones” and these “safe zones” are thankfully almost always in areas that visitors will want to explore.
After all, no one is going to be interested in visiting the risky border area separating Mexico and the US, yet Baja California, Guadalajara, and the Aztec ruins at Teotihuacan and other areas were absolutely fine to visit at time of writing this article.
Still not convinced? Then let me tell you a story about the first ever trip that I took by myself for 6 months, roughly 12 years ago...It should really convince you otherwise!
Srinagar, India
One of the first places I visited when I was travelling for the first time was to the Kashmir province in India. It is still to this day a disputed territory between India and Pakistan, and back then a few months before heading to India I remember hearing about artillery shelling on the road to it's capital, Srinagar, as well as a suicide bombing. Family and friends were naturally worried, but from the information I had gathered from backpackers and locals who had been, it painted a completely different picture.
So off I went and I had a great time, staying next door to the same houseboat on Srinagar's 'Dal Lake' the Beatles had stayed at in the late 60's and early 70's when they visited India. The local people were amazingly hospitable and every morning would serve saffron tea, fried eggs and toast.
In fact, the only thing I saw that was slightly sketchy was a burnt-out building riddled with bullet holes on the outskirts of the city when being driven to the bus station. It was nowhere near the parts of Srinigar that the few tourists went to at the time, and as it turned out was about 9 months old anyway.
Communist Insurgents in Nepal...
Fast forward 2 months after this, and I decided to change my plans and head off from India to enter neighbouring Nepal, based on the rave reviews I had heard from travellers who had just been...
Nepal at the time was still in the midst of a civil war with a Communist insurgency in the rural areas. But again, from what I heard from travellers who had been it seemed like it was safe for travellers.
The only thing I noticed on the way towards the backpacker-mecca of Pokhara (Nepal's second-city after Kathmandu) was a few military checkpoints and occasional soldiers who hopped on for 10 minutes as an escort.
When I got to Pokhara I organised a trek into the Himalayas to visit a Gurkha village, and on day 2 me and my guide bumped into the Communist rebels. My guide and numerous other trekkers I had met in Pokhara had said that they ask for a 'donation' for entering their territory and usually 500 rupees (which at the time was about 4 quid) would suffice.
We bumped into them in a beautiful village at the base of the final mountain we were to ascend. It had a small waterfall and a little temple and the houses were traditional Nepalese ones made from wood. I was having issues with leeches and so I sat by the little waterfall and took off my hiking boots and thick wool socks. To my horror there were 3 on one foot and 4 on the other, all fat and swollen! Leeches don't hurt because they inject a chemical into your skin that numbs nerve cells like a local anaesthetic, but it is alarming to see this swollen creatures sucking the blood out of your feet!
I panicked and did the worst thing you could do with leeches, grabbing at them and pulling them off. I did this with one or two and my guide and what I assumed was the colonel of the squad of rebels shouted at me in Nepalese. I stopped and the Colonel came over with his cigar – looking just like Che Guevara - and said what I assumed to be something like “You idiot! This is how you get leeches off! Hold still!”.
So my feet were bleeding now from the leeches I had ripped off, but he knelt down and poked the remaining ones with his cigar. They all shrivelled up one by one and fell off, and these punctures in my feet didn't bleed. So I learnt a life lesson there from a Communist insurgent!
So after this me, my guide and the insurgents all sat around – with Kalashnikovs scattered around on the ground - with my guide was translating for me. We chatted about politics and the situation in Nepal at the time where they were trying to overthrow an Absolute Monarchy that had gradually become more and more disliked and sometimes despised by the general public.
I was reading a lot of Noam Chomsky and Murray Bookchin at the time so we had an interesting conversation about Socialism and they seemed to enjoy it. But I think they enjoyed the Cadbury's chocolate bar I shared around with them a lot more!
So by the time we parted ways – after they let me play around with one of their AK-47's (they took the magazine out!) - that 500 rupees 'donation' was only 300 rupees. But I said I liked their cause, so paid the 500 rupees anyway...After all, what is 2 quid difference?
Amusingly, they actually gave me a receipt! Karl Marx, Mao, Lennin busts in the background, with a hammer and sickle, and the amount paid and the signature of the “Che Guevera” colonel, so if I met other rebels, I could just show them this and I wouldn't have to pay again! I still have the receipt somewhere to this day.
The Gurkha village was great and they loved the fact a couple of their sons were based in Larkhill, only a few miles away from Salisbury my home town! A lot of rice whisky and spicy buffalo was consumed apparently because of this....
But on the way back down a couple of days later, we bumped into a squad of government pro-monarchists troops. They were all friendly and said “Namaste” as they passed, and my guide said that it is pretty common for these territory shifts to happen so quickly! In fact he exchanged a few words with them that made them all laugh, which he later explained was him simply saying “Sorry, you missed them by 2 days!”.
Ask expats, locals and fellow travellers...Most the world is actually remarkably safe!
How do I go about finding out if a country is safe or not?
If I am already on the road, then I will simply ask travellers who have already been what the security situation is. If able, I will supplement this with asking on forums too (like couchsurfing). It may be somewhat surprising but actually this first hand experience from travellers is the most accurate and up to date information on security situations.
But this is how it works in a nutshell: No one with any real travel experience takes any travel advisories from governments seriously, and this is not because they don't care, but that they know that such information is highly inaccurate at best, and very damaging at worst.
It will undoubtedly come as a surprise to people who haven't been travelling outside resorts and package holidays that actually, there are not that many places in the world that are completely out-of-bounds.
So, there we have it. It can be difficult and at times frustrating to try to make people realise that the world outside our 'western bubbles' is generally a safe and amazing place, and if travelling has taught me anything that the people in it are generally kind, honest and compassionate when given the opportunity.
If this wasn't true, then why would we travel??
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